Week 3 Sweat Bets
During Week 1, I noticed that the afternoon games were pushed back 10 minutes from 1:15 to 1:25 this season. I read an article about the extra 10 minute window and it said the extra time was because football games are getting progressively longer and networks want to avoid any overlap between the morning games and the afternoon games. That makes sense. That’s all well and good, but it’s about money. It’s always about money. With that extra 10 minutes the networks can generate more ad revenue that they wouldn’t have been able to otherwise. But for gamblers, it’s also about money.
When I first realized that there was an extra 10 minutes between games, my automatic assumption – as a degenerate gambler – was that it was for gambling. Not only does the 10 minutes avoid some of the overlap between games for the networks, it also avoids the overlap between games potentially wagered on for gamblers. It allows 10 more minutes to get to the ticket window to either parlay their winnings into more potential winnings or to chase their morning losses.
It’s all about money. And with football, it’s all about gambling too.
But for me, it isn’t just about gambling anymore. It’s about reputation. I know nobody really cares what my record is against the spread, but when you make yourself vulnerable by putting your opinions out there – like I did in my Week 2 Sweat Bets and like I plan on doing the rest of the season – it adds a new dimension of sweat. There is the normal sweat and there is a sweat when people know what your sweat is.
Needless to say, when I lost my first three bets of the week (Bears +6, Bears Over 24, and USC -8), it wasn’t just a normal 0-3 run. 0-3 happens all the time. In a small sample size, anything can happen so as a better – although it isn’t ideal – you can expect it to happen sometimes. It comes with the territory. But when you write about gambling, 0-3 feels like you’re 0-3 from the free throw line. You don’t want to take that fourth free throw.
But luckily, it worked out. After losing my first three picks of the week, I went on an 8-1 run (7-0 on Sunday) to end the week. Thank you, home dogs.
Week 3 picks
1. Cincinnati Bengals +4 W
2. Arizona Cardinals +4 W
3. San Francisco 49ers -6 L
4. Detroit Lions -3 L
5. Seattle Seahawks +3.5 W*
6. Carolina Panthers -2.5 L
7. Indianapolis Colts -3 L
8. St. Louis Rams/Chicago Bears Under 43 W
9. St. Louis Rams +7.5 L
10. Cincinnati Bengals/Washington Redskins Over 49 W
11. Houston Texans/Denver Broncos Under 45 L
12. Pittsburgh Steelers Over 12.5 2h W
13. Houston Texans Over 12 2h L
14. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (live) L
15. Baltimore Ravens +4.5 (live) W
16. Dallas Cowboys Pk (live) W
Last week: 8-4, Season: 8-4
Minor detail that might not be that minor: I bet on some of these lines throughout the week so some of these lines might not reflect the line at kickoff.
I’ll probably add some live bets and other picks throughout the weekend so check back later.
Endnote: Jim Harbaugh’s teams are 44-24-2 ATS since his days at Stanford. The 49ers were 12-3-1 ATS last year. Harbaugh is literally money. So although the line movement from -7 to -6 raised an eyebrow and with everybody finally coming to a consensus that the 49ers are the best team in football, sometimes it’s better to not over-think it. Just ride the Jim Harbaugh Money Train until it gets derailed.
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