Digging for Value: Super Bowl Prop Bets

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When the New England Patriots opened at -4, I loved the Giants and the points. Now, at -2.5? I don’t have a clue. Not even a lean. I don’t even have a vested interest really in either team. I’m still bitter about the 49ers loss two weeks ago against the Giants, and I don’t want Tom Brady to tie Joe Montana’s four Super Bowls because Joe and I go way back.

Super Bowl prop bets? Different story. There is money to be made. Wait, wait, hypothetical money (not really), so IRS, go fly a kite.

Tom Brady passing yards OVER 315.5

If the Patriots are winning, it will be because Brady is picking apart the Giants’ defense. If they’re behind, Brady will be throwing the ball to try and bring them back. He didn’t throw for over 5,200 yards and 39 touchdowns because the Patriots are a run-centric team. What am I missing here?

Kelly Clarkson sings the National Anthem UNDER 1:34.00: +130

Kelly Clarkson is an experienced National Anthem singer. Of her eight different anthems on YouTube, her average time was1:31. Her shortest time was 1:26 and her longest was 1:38. The other six times were 1:29, 1:34, 1:32, 1:27, and 1:33. If you take out the longest and shortest anthems, the average time is 1:31.33. That gives under betters approximately a three second “Super Bowl oomph” window.

Here are some notes from beyondthebets.com

• Clarkson’s anthems don’t have a long, extended “brave.” Compared to most anthem singers, it’s actually quite succinct. This is key because I don’t suspect much additional time will be added to the song on that last verse.
• Her “Rockets Red Glare, the bombs bursting in air …” tends to be a bit inconsistent. At the 2000 event and at last year’s NBA Finals, it lasted 11 seconds. At a 2006 Cowboys game, though, it was nine seconds. That’s the shortest of any she’s done.
• Verse I fear the most: “O! say does that star-spangled banner yet wave.” In last year’s Finals, the “wave” lasted roughly five seconds, which is concerning. Then again, that was a 1-minute, 27-second version, her shortest of any indoor venue.

This isn’t a slam-dunk, stone cold lock, but at +130? Value galore.

Kelly Clarkson does NOT omit or forget any word: -800

Did I not just mention that Kelly Clarkson has performed the National Anthem at least eight times??? She’s a cagey vet. She’s the Kurt Thomas of National Anthem singers. Take this bet and run. As my cousin would say, “If you don’t take it, it’s like walking by free money.”

Kelly Clarkson does NOT wear an NFL jersey/shirt with a number on it: -350

Let’s just be honest, Kelly Clarkson isn’t good looking enough to pull off a jersey. It’s just too risky. With millions of women watching the Super Bowl, she’s not going to give them an opportunity to say, “Look at that girl trying to look all cute in that jersey (eye roll).”

Okay, I was wrong. I just saw pictures of Kelly Clarkson wearing an Emmitt Smith jersey while singing the National Anthem at a Cowboys game and a Rangers jersey while performing in Arlington. But that’s just it, she’s from Texas. She’s a fan of Texas teams. The Giants and Patriots do not play in Texas. Boom. Added value. Size up.

Color of drink poured on winning coach: Water/clear +140

Look at all of the pictures from previous Patriots and Giants Super Bowl victories. What do you see? Clear. Don’t overthink this one. Don’t get caught up in the big payout.

Aaaand for you degenerates, unlike myself, I lean tails on the coin toss.