Me:Fla-Giants knows is stuff and I love reading his scouting reports, I hope he doesn't mind I reposted this. I included a link to his original post.


by Fla-Giant on Nov 7, 2011



I thought that this would be a good time to start the long offseason debate on the prospect rankings. I don't mean to propose that we start the CPL voting now, because I think that would be better left until the middle of December - after the Rule 5 Draft and after BA.com and John Sickels puts out their lists (Baggs just tweeted a few days ago that his top 30 for BA will come out on Dec. 14th). I'll start with a system-wide overview then go into the specific players and my rankings.

When looking at the Giants farm system this offseason, even more so than at this time last year, I had to conclude that it is very thin in terms of top prospects and prospects that are close to being ready to contribute at the major league level. With Zack Wheeler and Thomas Neal traded away and the 2 Brandons (Belt and Crawford) graduating, there's not likely to be any player besides Eric Surkamp that will be contributing in SF at any time next season before the rosters get expanded next September. However, I think that the Giants had a strong draft this year and I especially liked how many toolsy young high school and teen-aged junior college guys they signed. When you add in the young Caribbean international free agents that are starting to move up through the lower levels of the system, it gives the Giants a very deep group of C-level prospects (I count 25 24 in my list), so there is some basis for optimism for the future health of the system.

Looking at the system, it should quickly become obvious that its strength is clearly in its catchers, followed closely by pitching. There follows a bit of a dropoff to centerfielders, but then we fall way off a cliff to all of the other positions. We are especially lacking in shortstops, power-hitting corner outfielders and prototypical third basemen - which sadly all happen to be areas of extreme need for the Giants at the major league level.


Without further ado, my list begins after the jump.



Each name is followed by their predicted future position; April 1, 2012 age (year.month); and my letter grade for them. The oldest and youngest ages are bolded for emphasis.

1. Gary Brown (CF | 23.6 | A-): Most have him rated lower than A-, but I believe in his toolset and his ability to continue to grow and adapt at an advanced rate. He’s also a very driven competitor who loves to play the game. He surprised me with his power in the CAL this season, but I don't expect that to be a big part of his game going forward. He still needs to discipline himself to take more pitches, walk a bit more, and strike out less to be a better leadoff hitter.

2. Joe Panik (2B/SS | 21.5 | B): He looked very good with the bat in the NWL, but his D at SS was reportedly a bit shaky. I love what he was able to do in his first pro season at a relatively young age. His proven ability in the past 2 years to work a walk, make consistent contact and not strike out much is another very positive sign going forward (college: BB=15.7%, K=8.5%; Cape Cod League: BB=11.4%, K=6.9%; NWL: BB=9.2%, K=8.2%). His relative lack of power in the easy NWL is something to keep an eye on. I still think he eventually ends up at 2B, but he could be a multiple all-star at that position in the majors.

3. Andrew Susac (C | 22.0 | B): He signed too late to make his pro debut, which may have been a blessing in disguise as it allowed his hand more time to rehab from the broken hamate bone he suffered in April. I loved what I saw of his defensive skills at C during the NCAA Regional and Super-Regionals last spring - he really made big strides since I saw him in his freshman season. Having seen both of them play in their final year of college ball, I have no problem stating that, defensively, Susac is ahead of where Buster Posey was at the same stage in their careers. Susac's bat in the 2010 Cape Cod League season and the 2011 college season was also well above-average. His athleticism, defense and well above-average power makes him appear to be the total package and puts his ceiling very high.

4. Eric SurKamp (LHP | 24.8 | B): He dominated the EL before stumbling in his last few big league starts in Sept. Effectively dispelled most of my lingering questions about his hip injury and whether or not he can be successful with only a high 80s FB.

5. Kyle Crick (RHP | 19.4 | B): He's raw and will likely take longer to develop than most highly-drafted pitchers due to his lack of pitching experience in high school. On the plus side, his stuff can be electric, he has plus arm-speed, he's bull-strong, and he's seemingly nowhere near his full potential.

6. Hector Sanchez (C | 22.4 | B): He has always had the tools to be very good, but he finally began to show them in-game on a consistent basis in 2011. He seemed a bit overwhelmed in his stint in the PCL during the 2nd half of the season, especially with his power tool at the plate, but I think that was mostly just a function of him being cautious and somewhat overwhelmed with the crash course in game-calling and managing a pitching staff that Steve Decker was putting him through on a daily basis.

7. Tommy Joseph (C | 20.8 | B): He made huge strides with his defense once he got the chance to catch full-time in the 2nd half of the season. His success in the CAL at such a young age (he was the 2nd youngest position player in the league) makes what he did this season even more significant. Most will rate him higher than this, but I still have long-term questions about his lack of athleticism, his lack of quickness and his lack of ability to make enough contact with the bat to let his natural power come into play as he moves forward in his career. The EL will be a huge test for him next year, but he's young enough that he can spend the next 2 full seasons in the EL and still be considered a young prospect for his league going into the 2014 season.

8. Francisco Peguero (CF/RF | 23.10 | B-): I'd like to rank him higher, but I still am troubled by his lack of walks and relative lack of power (BB=1.7%, ISOp=.137). On a positive note, his hit tool didn't wilt in the very pitcher-friendly EL (although he was only there for about 10 weeks). On the negative side, his SBs were way down this season, but that could just be a function of the Giants shutting him down after the knee operation made him miss the first 2 months of the season.

9. Josh Osich (LHP | 23.6 | B-): If I knew that he was 100% healthy, I would probably rank him as high as #5. He has great stuff (mid-90s FB, above-average CH and CU), but needs to work on his command and control and mechanics. He might have to settle for a closer role if the health of his elbow continues to be an issue.

10. Heath Hembree (RHP | 23.2 | B-): He proved to me that his statistically successful, but short, 2010 season was no fluke. Not only did he maintain his elite K-rate as he jumped all the way to AA Richmond, but he showed that his control shouldn't be an issue in his pro career. He still needs to work on his secondary pitches, and he faded in the last few weeks of this season (when his Ks dropped and his BBs went up), but I think that he was just worn down from pitching in so many games (54) for the first time in his life.

11. Adalberto Mejia (LHP | 18.9 | B-): This is an aggressive grade, but the Giants tipped how highly they think of his progress after his first pro season by making him the only 2011 DSL alumni that they brought to Scottsdale for the AZ Instructs in September. He had incredible stats in the DSL - pitching 76 innings (averaging almost 6 innings per start) with K/9=8.4, BB/9=.95, K/BB=8.9, WHIP=.87. He's still growing physically, so I believe that he'll likely add 2-4 mph to his velocity and be throwing his FB in the 91-94 mph range in the next year or two. Add in his plus command and control, deceptive delivery, and advanced feel for his offspeed pitch and you can see that Mejia could eventually end up being a pitcher in the Bumgarner mold.

12. Clayton Blackburn (RHP | 19.2 | B-): A second straight advanced young pitcher with plus command and control. I originally had him ranked a bit lower down, with a C+ grade, but BA's recent scouting report on him changed my mind. He put up excellent numbers, and showed great poise, as a reliever and starter in the AZL this season. He doesn't have the high-end velocity of most other high-upside HS hurlers, but he seems to have a natural sink and movement on his FB that results in a relatively high K-rate and a ton of groundballs. Here are his AZL stats over 6 starts and 6 relief appearances:
IP=33.1, ERA=1.08, WHIP=.57, BAA=.140, H=16, K=30, BB=1, IBB=2, K/9=8.1, BB/9=.81, K/BB=10, GO/AO=2.58

13. Ehire Adrianza (SS | 22.7 | C+): He overcame a serious finger injury in the late spring that forced him to sit out 2 months and slow his development. However, he seemed to catch fire the last 2 months of the season when he got promoted to SJ and even showed surprising power. He's still young, but I remain skeptical about his bat and his ability to play consistently plus defense at SS.

14. Chuckie Jones (LF/RF | 19.8 | C+): Almost a lost season for Jones due to early leg issues and a 4 week layoff only 3 weeks into the season due to an appendectomy. He struggled again with an extremely high K-rate, but he also showed that he can still work a walk and that he can adjust his approach at the plate when things are going bad.

15. Jacob Dunnington (RHP | 21.1 | C+): You have to love what he was able to do as one of the youngest pitchers (20.5) in the Cal League during the 2nd half of this season. He was a bit shaky with his control in the Sally during the 1st half, but he performed lights-out when he got promoted to the Cal League. He did prove this year that he could maintain his very high K-rate and remain extremely tough to get a hit off of against advanced competition. In each of the 3 pro leagues that he's pitched in during his 2 year pro career he's never alowed a BAA above .197, or a K/9 below 11.1, and he has only given up 2 HRs in his career despite having an above-average flyball rate in 2 leagues where the ball typically jumps over the fences (AZL and CAL). His age, stats, and stuff make him a true sleeper - and he still has more room to grow into his frame even after having put on more than 15 pounds of mass and muscle since being signed as a non-drafted free agent by the Giants in Sept. 2009. He reportedly still only weighs around 160 pounds.

16. Mike Kickham (LHP | 23.3 | C+): It was a somewhat disappointing and inconsistent season in low-A ball for Kickham, but we knew that he was raw and only a draft-eligible sophomore coming out of college in 2010. He does have the velocity and breaking ball to be an above-average starter, but he still needs to learn command, control and pitchability.

17. Enmanuel DeJesus (LHP | 18.2 | C): Another young Caribbean lefty that just completed his first pro season. He started out shakier than Mejia, but he came on very strong at the end of the season. In his last 8 starts of the season (between July 6th and August 16th) he averaged 6 innings per start and had K/9=11.8, BB/9=2.4, and K/BB=5. He throws his FB in the 87-90 MPH range now, but he has a very deceptive motion, advanced feel for his changeup and breaking ball, and excellent pitchability for his age. His control doesn't appear anywhere near as good as Mejia's, but it's still pretty good for a strikeout artist of his age and experience level. If he can add at least 2 mph to his velocity as he fills out and matures over the next few years then the Giants appear to have a real steal for only a mere $35K signing bonus.

18. Charlie Culberson (2B | 22.11 | C): He had a disappointing season in the EL after a promising start (.259/.291/.382/.673, K=22%), but he's still relatively young and he showed flashes of progress at the end of the season. He's likely never going to be even just an average OBP guy, or one that makes consistent contact at the plate, but it seems to me that he has the potential to be a Mike Fontenot-style utility INF in the future.

19. Ryan Verdugo (LHP | 24.11 | C): He showed signs of promise in his first year as a starter (K/9=9.3), but I still see him as a reliever going forward. I was most impressed that he was able to pitch 130 innings this season despite only throwing 35 and 63 innings out of the pen in 2009 and 2010, respectively. His biggest issue is a troublingly high walk rate (BB/9=4.4) and a lack of a consistent secondary pitches.

19. Adam Duvall (3B/2B | 23.6 | C): His defense remains shaky, but a new batting stance really unleashed a hidden above-average power stroke, while maintaining a very good BB-rate in the very pitcher-friendly, power-suppressing Sally (ISOp=.242, BB=11.6%). He'll be a bit old for the Cal League next season, but hopefully he dominates there in the first half and gets promoted to AA Richmond.

20. Ricky Oropesa (1B | 22.3 | C): He has the power tool that the Giants need and crave, and he has shown that he can work a walk. He's also got a plus arm and above-average speed. The questions with him are going to be, can he make consistent contact and does he have the drive, discipline and patience needed to harness and refine his considerable toolset?

21. Seth Rosin (RHP | 23.4 | C): He had a relatively disappointing season in a league that he should have dominated from the beginning. He didn't become consistently effective until he was sent to the pen in June. Even more troubling is his loss of the plus control, and the reported noticeable drop in his velocity, from his college days. I can't rank him higher until I get some info on what caused this. I'd still like the Giants to give him another chance to start again in 2012.

22. Kendry Flores (RHP | 20.4 | C): He showed flashes of very good stuff in the NWL, but he still needs to work on his concentration, focus, and stamina. He still seems more of a thrower than a pitcher right now. Hopefully, the Giants will get him on a training program to add some muscle to his frame and stamina in his game.

23. Shawn Payne (CF | 22.8 | C): He's old for being such a raw prospect in a short-season league, but his ++ centerfield D and + speed and athleticism were weapons to be reckoned with from the minute he made his pro debut. He struggled at the plate to begin his pro career, but came on strong in the 2nd half of the season once he got comfortable. You have to love his elite BB-rate and his acceptable K-rate (BB=14.9%, K=16.4%). Here's a vid of him in action from spring 2011: http://www.statesboroherald.com/multimedia/2659/

24. Jesus Galindo (CF | 21.7 | C): He made the rare jump (for a Giant farmhand) all the way from the DSL to the NWL, and (even more rare) it was a success. He showed that his + centerfield D and ++ speed does translate to America after 2 inconsistent seasons in the DSL.

25. Kentrell Hill (CF | 21.5 | C-): At 6’0" and 185 pounds with 4.4 speed in the forty-yard dash, Hill’s athleticism is more akin to a National Football League defensive back than a college baseball player. He has the 5-tool potential that makes scouts drool, but he's very raw. He's still relatively young and has time to develop into his tools.

26. Kelby Tomlinson (SS | 21.9 | C-): He appears to be the guy that the Giants thought they were getting when they drafted Carter Jurica in the 3rd round of the 2010 draft. He started his pro career in the AZL in June and impressed so much that he made it to Augusta before the end of the season. He has the experience and chops to start next season in SJ, but being stuck behind Joe Panik on the SS depth chart, Tomlinson will almost certainly be the starting SS for Augusta next season. He is an well above-average defensive SS who appears to have the ability to make consistent contact at the plate and knows how to work a walk. I think he could be the Giants 3rd best SS prospect a year from now.

27. Demondre Arnold (RHP | 20.0 | C-): Nice results in his limited time in the AZL. He should be in line for a starting spot in the Augusta rotation in 2012. He can bring it in the 92-94 mph range and he still has room to grow into his frame.
Here's a vid of him pitching for his JuCo team in several games during Jan & Feb 2011: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTieeypHFT4

28. Drew Stiner (C | 19.6 | C-): Keep an eye on this overlooked athletic and talented youngster. It will likely be a long grind in the minors for him, but he was one of the best defensive HS catchers in the last draft and he has at least a plus arm. He has well above-average raw power and shows plate discipline, patience and a knowledge of the strike zone that is well advanced of even many of the early round high school draftees. He should end up being seen as a huge steal in the 43rd round in a few years from now.

29. Brett Bochy (RHP | 24.7 | C-): He's old, but he dominated in the Sally (K/9=12.1, BB/9=1.9, K/BB=6.4 while striking out over 35% of the batters he faced) despite starting the season less than 1 year removed from Tommy John surgery. TJ surgery survivors normally show marked improvement in their 2nd and 3rd years, so we have a lot to dream on with Bochy. He reported has an above-average FB and a truly nasty splitter. Look for him to start in SJ next Spring, but don't be surprised if he's in Richmond before the end of the season.

30. Chris Marlowe (RHP | 22.5 | C-): Pitched a few innings in the AZL in August. He has a blazing FB and a plus breaking ball, but can he learn command and control? He had cartoonishly good and bad stats in his final season of college as a closer in the Big 12 Conference: K/9=15.6, BB/9=7.5, BAA=.180. He should start 2012 in the Augusta or SJ bullpen.

31. Derek Law (RHP | 21.6 | C-): He pitched well in his few outings in the AZL in August. Could be tried as a starter, but, unless the Giants want to do a major overhaul of his mechanics, I think he'll stay in the pen. Law throws a good curveball, slider and above-average fastball which sits 90-92 mph, and has touched 93. Law’s father, Joe, reached AAA in the minors and helped teach Derek how pitch. He compiled eye-popping stats as a starter for a south Florida JuCo this season (K=121, BB=16, ERA=2.35 in 92 innings), including an excellent K/9 = 11.8, K/BB = 7.6. He has the bloodlines and the early coaching to be a successful major league pitcher.

32. Tyler Mizenko (RHP | 21.11 | C-): He's a sleeper from the 2011 draft who fell a long way due to being moved from closer to the starting rotation before his junior season. That cost him some signing bonus $$$, but it should make him a bette reliever in the long run. He'll have a long climb if the Giants want to use him as a starter, but he should climb rapidly if they keep him in the pen.

33. Carlos "Eric" Valdez (RF | 17.9 | C-): He signed for $350K out of the Dom. Prospect League in July 2011. He has yet to make his pro debut, but he won't turn 18 until the end of June 2012. He brings 3 above-average tools to the field right now (speed, arm & power), and has the potential to add the other 2 tools (defense & hit) in the future. I expect him to play for the DSL Giants in 2012, but he could surprise and jump all the way to the AZL with a strong showing in the Spring.

34. Chris Heston (RHP | 23.11 | C-): He doesn't have the greatest stuff, but he hits his spots and keeps the ball down with a power sinker. He has shown a very valuable trait in each of the last 2 seasons of getting noticably better and dominant by the 2nd half of the season. That tells me that he's coachable and a fast learner. I could see him jumping way up this list if he follows a similar course in AA next year.

35. Jonathan Jones (1B/3B | 20.1 | C-): You gotta love his LTP, but he's very raw and undisciplined. He probably can't stick at 3B, but the Giants should let him try it for now. He will probably end up in Salem-Keizer in 2012, but could be bumped up to Augusta if he has a good spring training campaign.

36. Jarrett Parker (CF | 23.3 | C-): Most will likely have him rated much higher than this. I do love his speed, plus defense and baserunning ability, but his continuing struggle to make consistent contact and keep his K-rate down is hard to ignore, given what I saw from him during his last season at Univ. of Virginia. He flashed good power as the season wore on in 2011, but I fear that it was more a product of the Cal League Effect and that he'll really struggle to hit for power in the EL in 2012. On a positive note, I see that he made changes to his swing this season, but I'm still not greatly impressed with his hitting mechanics.

37. Leonardo Fuentes (RF | 19.4 | C-): With 5 HRs and a .168 ISOp, he finally showed his advertised power stroke for the first time in his pro career while playing in the AZL this season. He still has a long way to go, and is a huge bust risk, due to extreme contact and strike out issues. Should move up one rung to Salem-Keizer in 2012.

38. Simon Mercedes (RHP | 19.?): Signed for $400K in January 2011, but didn't make his pro debut because MLB was looking into some shady business that he did with a fake birth certificate in 2009. He reportedly has a FB that touches the mid-90's and a promising breaking ball and changeup, so he could be a fast-riser when he gets on the diamond. Hopefully, he makes his pro debut in AZ next summer and doesn't have to spend a full season in the DSL.

39. Jake Dunning (RHP | 23.7): He failed as a starter in the first 6 weeks of the season, but he came on strong in the bullpen in the 2nd half to be a very effective closer for SJ.

40. Chris Dominguez (3B/1B | 25.4): Awesome raw power and arm, but his K-rate and advanced age are huge red flags against him. He should make the majors some day based solely on his power, but it will likely be a short and lackluster career unless he improves greatly between now and then.

41. Stephen Harrold (RHP | 23.0): He's a bit on the older side, and the Sally is a pitcher's league, but he also showed well in the 2 extreme hitters leagues (CAL and AFL) that he pitched in from August through November. He's got a very strong slider and an above-average FB. He could be in the SF pen as early as next September if he continues to improve in the EL next year.

42. Roger Kieschnick (RF | 25.2): He had really bad stats in the EL in 2011 and he's the 2nd oldest guy on this list. I'll cut him some slack and assume that his horrible first 2 months of the season was due to rust and the lingering effects of his back injury from 2010. He did have a good 5 week stretch in the 2nd half where his power returned and he ended up with 16 HRs and SLG=.429 for the season, but he's going to have to amp it way up in 2012. His K-rate is still too high.

43. Bryce Bandilla (LHP | 22.2): He's a big lefty with a blazing FB and the ability to throw some quality secondary pitches. His problem is learning command, control, consistency and the art of pitching. I would have had him about 10 spots higher if I wasn't concerned about the "labrum injury" he was diagnosed with after the draft.

44. Christian Diaz (RF | 18.8): He's a toolsy and athletic corner OF from Puerto Rico with 4 potential plus tools (defense, arm, hitting, power) that the Giants drafted in the 11th round of this year's draft. He has an ideal and projectable frame - long and lean with long arms and legs, sloping shoulders, and a high waist with plenty of room to fill out and put on muscle over the next several years. Scouts like his raw bat speed, short swing, and ability to hit to the opposite field. He got in 10 games and 16 PAs in the AZL this summer and showed some promising flashes. He also showed that he's still raw and will likely need a lot of time to develop into a consistent performer. Here's a short vid of him taking BP back in January of this year: http://www.baseballwebtv.com/Video.aspx?videoID=50666



HONORABLE MENTION (in alphabetical order):
Brandon Allen (RHP | 20.7),
Ray Black (RHP | 21.9),
Jorge Bucardo (RHP | 22.5),
Garrett Buechele (3B | 22.5),
Hector Correa (RHP | 24.0),
Jean Delgado (2B/SS | 19.1),
Conor Gillaspie (3B | 24.8),
Joan Gregorio (LHP | 20.2),
Nick Liles (OF | 24.8),
Lorenzo Mendoza (RHP | 20.7),
Cristian Otero (SS | 19.0),
Dan Otero (RHP | 27.1),
Travious Relaford (SS | 19.10),
Rafael Rodriguez (LF | 19.8),
Reinier Roibal (RHP | 23.2),
Angel Villalona (1B | 21.7),
Carlos Willoughby (2B | 23.4)