This year’s panels are wrought with enticing speakers and here are a couple that I picked out that I think you may like to hear about more indepthly over the next 2 days. Obviously a couple are going to be because of the Bay Area ties but I think you will find them interesting all the same.

Baseball Analytics Panel:

The panel that is probably most near and dear to my heart is this year’s baseball panel. Especially because of the inclusion of the Oakland Athletics Director of Baseball Operations, Farhan Zaidi. Zaidi, along with Assistant GM David Forst and Vice President & General Manager Billy Beane, were able to shock the baseball world last year by putting together an A’s team that quite literally defied all the experts odds (Except mine) and went out and not only won the stacked AL West but also made Oakland the focal point of the baseball world for the last month and a half of the season. Also it will be interesting to see if Zaidi does divulge some A’s secrets especially with a slew of other MLB franchises attending the conference. Personally, I don’t want Farhan to give away any secrets and want Michael Lewis to stay as far away from him as possible. You also have some other analytical Mavens like Voros McCracken and Ben Jedlovec who are developing the tools that many of these franchises are incorporating to give them the statistical edge on the field. Finally it will be great to have a couple of scribes on the panel, Jonah Keri and Joe Posnanski, in order to push the other guys into divulging more than they probably want to.  

Football Analytics Panel:

As I mentioned in a previous post, the Niners are probably going to be a hot topic at this year’s conference as they were at last years. Due in large part to their run at the Super Bowl this year, the Niners have turned themselves into an NFC juggernaut for at least the next 3-5 years due in large part to the cap maneuvering of Niners COO, Paraag Marathe. Marathe has been able to provide a favorable cap situation for San Francisco 49ers General Manager, Trent Baalke to maneuver in and intends to make full use of it this off-season. It will be interesting to see what Marathe has to say about the Niners options during Free Agency, an Alex Smith trade which netted them a draft day King’s Ransom, and what he see’s as the outlook for the team going into next year and if he feels they need to make moves for “now” or can still maintain course after reaching the Super Bowl. What will also be interesting on this panel will be the interaction between Marathe and Kevin Demoff, Executive Vice President and COO of the St. Louis Rams, since they are rivals in the NFC West. Also it will be great to see how Aaron Schatz, Editor-in-Chief of Football Outsiders, delves into what all these teams are doing in terms of analytics and its application on the field.

Revenge of the Nerds:

In terms of bang for your buck panels, the Revenge of the Nerds panel has to be the biggest one on Day 1 of the conference. The fact that Mark Cuban, Daryl Morey, Nate Silver, and Paraag Marathe are all on one panel is just going to be oozing quotes and possible NBA fines if Cuban has anything to say about it. Also the fact that Marathe is on the panel is another feather in the Bay Area’s hat in terms of the national attention that they are garnering with what the 49ers are doing on and off the field. Plus it doesn’t hurt that Michael Lewis is mediating this panel and the thought that there could be the kernel of a book from the tidbits that these statistical trend setters throw out during the panel.

What are your thoughts on the panels? Hit the link, check out the panels and let me know in the comments section what you think are panels that I should be checking out or are ones that you would like to read more about in the next couple of days. Can’t wait till tomorrow and keep checking back for more updates and pictures from the conference.

At it’s core, the SSAC is a conference devoted to analytics in all of its variations and how they are applied to sports. Whether it’s the newest interpretation of spatial analysis and data tracking or how the use of analytics are being implemented on every level of a sports franchise, every single type of analytics is covered at the conference over a two day period. From the burgeoning MMA fight analytics panel to Predictive Sports Betting analytics, if there is something you are into sports wise it is here along with the power players who make all of happen or are on the forefront of a new analytical frontier.

The Bay Area sports scene is pretty well represented at this year’s conference with the inclusion of a couple of the area’s most notable analytic franchises.

Once again the San Francisco 49ers are represented by Paraag Marathe, the COO of the 49ers. Especially after the great year that the Niners had on the field with their run to the Super Bowl and the stock pile of draft picks they have coming up in this year’s draft. Marathe has played an integral role in not only getting the Niners salary cap situation under control but also ushering in a more meticulous focus on the use of analytics within the organization.

Then you have Farhan Zaidi, Director of Baseball Operations for the Oakland Athletics. I’m very interested in seeing what Zaidi has to bring to his baseball analytics panel because he is representing the organization that made Sabermetrics famous, the Oakland Athletics. It will be interesting if he can shed some light on where he see’s the A’s going forward after winning the AL West and have to deal with a supremely loaded Anaheim Angels team and still formidable Texas Rangers squad. Not to mention the fact that so many of the A’s call ups from last year paid huge dividends during their run to the AL West title.

Even the President of the San Jose Earthquakes, David Kaval, will be in attendance and on the Tickets Anlaytics panel. He will be discussing the innovative ways that the San Jose Earthquakes have made end roads into marketing the organization and growing soccer in the area. As well as customer relations in terms providing a greater fan experience and giving fans more opportunities n which to watch soccer.

Tomorrow, I’ll outline some panels and what I expect to hear and what questions I would like to have answered. But before then I have some homework for you, hit the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference link and check out the panels yourself and let me know what you would want to see while I’m there.

T-Minus 2 more Days…

After finally snapping a 6 game losing streak against the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday in a 108-98 beat down, many thought tonight’s game against the Spurs would already be chalked up in the loss column. The Warriors had already lost 16 games in a row to the Spurs, so what was another among friends. Then compiling that problem with the introduction of new Adiddas Shirsey-errr, Jersey’s and you had the makings of a not so happy night in Warriorland, in a not so snazzy new uniform.

Let me sidebar this post real quick, look I get that not everyone is going to like the new uniforms. Hell, I probably wouldn’t have minded them as much if the shorts would have at least matched the jersey, even with the pinstriped shorts. But let’s not kid ourselves and say that this new fangled expensive version of a Shirsey isn’t more novelty than substance. With teams constantly trying to look for new revenue streams, don’t tell me that adding sleeves to a basketball jersey isn’t more about adding possible Ad real estate than its is about pushing forward basketball clothing technology. How else would you be able to fit a humungous Bug Zappers Pest Control logo on it without having it actually interfere with the teams logo? Think about it…

Back to the game, obviously Jarret Jack was the star of tonight’s game but I just wanted to bring up the fact that defense that I saw Klay Thompson playing on Tony Parker was also a big key to tonight’s win. I’m sure a lot of people noticed it but I liked how engaged Klay was on the defensive end when he was matched up on Parker. Sure it could be that Parker was just a little tired from torching CP3 and the Clippers from the night before but I would like to believe that Klay stood focused on his job defensively on Parker. Plus it probably helped that he was able to get his offensive game going early because after the quick 8 points he scored in the 1st qtr, that was all he was going to get until OT. Klay finished with a line of 10 pts on 5-14 shooting, 3 Rebs, 3 Ast, 1 Stl, and a +/- of -6. He did a good job of going over screens and really using great footwork to try and stay in front of Parker for as long as he could in order to funnel him to defensive help or using his length to bother Parker’s shot once he got into the lane. Also even though he went cold offensively after the first quarter, he made Parker work on the defensive end in terms of having him run through screens and attempting to post up him up even if he would end up passing out of the set. Finally, Klay had the 2nd highest minutes total on the team which meant even though he wasn’t scoring he was doing something right. Parker ended with a line of 18 pts on 7-18 shooting, 3 Ast, 6 Rebs, 2 Stls, and a +/- of -5 and just wasn’t his usual effective self in tonight’s game.

Then you had Jarrett Jack, the man of the hour and as Mark Jackson said after the game,

With all due respect to what Jamal Crawford has done for the Los Angeles Clippers and with all due respect to what J.R. Smith has done for the New York Knicks, Jarrett Jack has been the best sixth man all year long.

Jack had an insane line off the bench and one that hadn’t been matched since Magic Johnson in 1996. Jack’s line was a gaudy 30 pts on 11-22 shooting, 3 Rebs, 10 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 Blk, and +/- of +19. Even though Jack was 1-6 from 3 pt land, the picture above is right after he nailed a wide open 3 that Stephen Curry was able to create on a left handed pass back out to Jack even though he looked trapped on the baseline. Jack has turned into the Warriors defacto crunch time go to player. He is willing, ready, and able to take and knock down big shots when his number is called and proved it again last night versus the Spurs. Curry is still growing into his role as the go to “Closer” on the Warriors but the mere fact that he has someone like Jarrett Jack to help disperse the weight of the final 2 mins of game or the last couple of possessions is great for both Curry and the Warriors. Yes, the Warriors will go as Stephen Curry and Davivd Lee go, but they need a straw to stir that drink and his name is Jarrett Jack.

I started this post by posing the question of if the Warriors could build on the win over the Spurs. Undoubtedly they can, but the key will be for them to avoid a let down game in Minnesota and play with the same intensity that they did against the Spurs regardless of the opponent for the duration of the road trip. No Excuses. The upcoming road trip is not pretty, but last night’s win over the Spurs could be the first true building block in the Warriors playoff plans.

Oh and Jarrett Jack, can you start doing this after you kill the hopes of an NBA team after a Made shot. Thanks in Advance.

Aaron: All the usual stuff is a given. Don’t take dumb penalties, don’t turn the ball over, limit the big plays against, etc. What I’m curious to see is how the Ravens defend the 49ers coming off of two games against teams that don’t present much of a deep threat. Peyton Manning’s noodle arm was never a serious threat to go over the top of Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard even though the Broncos have two very nice receivers that can stretch the field. Conversely, Tom Brady throws one of the better deep balls in the NFL but he just doesn’t have anyone on the outside that is a credible threat when it comes to getting behind the defense. The result for the Ravens was that they were able to really clog up the short and intermediate stuff in the middle of the field, which just happens to be where both Manning and Brady thrive.

Now the Ravens are facing a 49ers team that has generated a lot of big plays since making the switch to Kaepernick. Granted, a lot of those big plays have come from Kaepernick running the ball and from Vernon Davis in the NFC Championship Game rather than the WR position, but I think it’ll be tough for those safeties to play up as much as they did in their last two games. So do they stay back right from the get go? Do they dance with the girl that brung’em and stay up? And for the 49ers, what are they anticipating? If they think the Ravens are going to keep those safeties up then they should take a shot or two early, but if they Ravens play back and the 49ers take those shots they risk throwing the ball up for Ed Reed. To me that little chess match is going to have a big impact on the outcome of the game.

And it’s not just the Ravens safeties that will go long ways in deciding this Super Bowl. We all know Dashon Goldson has a tendency to cheat a little and jump some routes. He’s gotten away from it for the most part this season but he hasn’t gone cold turkey. We’ve all seen Flacco and the Ravens offense create big plays in the passing game during the playoffs and I think the 49ers will want to take away those deep balls and make Flacco complete 7 or 8 passes on a drive to get into the endzone. His completion percentage would suggest that’s not really his strong suit and I think if he can beat the 49ers by throwing shorter passes consistently you’ve just got to tip your hat to him.

The 49ers were among the best in the league during the regular season at limiting big plays in the passing game by being conservative with their safeties, which they can afford to do because of how well the front seven stops the run without help. They even had excellent coverage on two of the bigger plays against them in the postseason (the James Jones catch against Green Bay and the Julio Jones TD in Atlanta). On both of those plays it took a great catch and perfect throw to beat the defense. In the Super Bowl Goldson has to avoid trying to jump routes and get caught out of position. I don’t think the 49ers can totally shut out the Ravens on the deep passes, but this game could come down to whether those deep balls are 40 yard completions or 60 yard touchdowns. If nothing else Goldson has to be in a position to make the tackle if the pass is completed.

I doubt the 49ers are as concerned about Ray Rice as the Patriots and Broncos probably were because they have that great front seven and because they’ve seen what kind of damage Flacco can do, so they will want to take away the deep passes and force Flacco to play more like Manning and Brady typically do.

FG: I definitely think the pressure is going to fall squarely on the Niners secondary to go out on Sunday and make a lot of plays. If anything, the Niners will be worried about the play of Culliver and Brown on the outside which means Goldson and Whitner will have to do a really good job of communicating and giving help over the top. Although once you get past Torrey Smith, the Ravens receiving corps isn’t something that the Niners will be losing too much sleep over. Sure everyone is still worried about Anquan Boldin but unless he plans on living over the middle and dealing with the big hits, I feel like he is going to be kept in check all game.

The Niners just need to continue what they have done all year on defense and that is continue to get 3 and outs and take the pressure off of Kaepernick so that he doesn’t feel like he has to win the game by himself. Plus if the Niners want to win Sunday’s game running away, they have to come out and be even more physical than they usually are. That means Mama and Papa York better get those checkbooks ready because if the Niners come out early and just lay someone out a la last year playoff game versus the Saints, I think they get in Flacco’s head and make the receivers pull off routes early and place all of the pressure on Ray Rice to carry the offensive load.

If that happens, it is going to be a long day for the Ravens and Flacco with a somber Ray Lewis looking on and wondering where he will get his next deer antler fix. But then again, if the Ravens come out and are the more physically dominant team the complexion of the game then changes dramatically. If Suggs and Ngata are able to get into a grove and dominate the line then I think the Ravens can force Kaepernick into some ill advised throws which will just give Ed Reed more chances at INT’s. Plus when the Ravens defense plays well it seems to give Flacco a lot more confidence to go out and take chances on big throws down the field which could translate into a long day for Brown who will probably be matched up one on one with Jacoby Jones. Which probably doesn’t seem like much right now, but if Brown continues to struggle, Jones could be the beneficiary.

The one problem in my Ravens theory is that I don’t think they can match the Niners physicality for the entirety of the game. Based on one simple thing, the Ravens are old and the Niners aren’t. Unless all the Ravens got a massive load of hologram stickers and deer antler spray and have perfectly cycled up to kickoff, it is pretty much that cut and dry because when you look at both teams they are almost spitting images of each other. The key difference being that the Ravens are the Dorian Gray portrait while the Niners are Dorian Gray.

Alright Aaron, so let’s figure out what would be the worst case scenarios for both teams and if the proverbial “crap” hit the fan. I will try and limit my deer antler references but I can make no promises.

AR: Well as I mentioned leading into the NFC Championship Game, my biggest fear for the 49ers was the game coming down to David Akers. That hasn’t changed a bit. Jim Harbaugh made a point of mentioning the fact that Akers didn’t miss a kick all week in practice. I suppose that’s better than the alternative but the fact that Harbaugh felt the need to bring it up tells me he doesn’t feel good about his kicker either. When you compare these two teams position group by position group the only area where the Ravens have a decided edge is with their place kicker.

I think the biggest problem for the Ravens is that The Smiths return to the form they had through the second half of the 49ers game in New England, the form that saw Aldon rack up 19½ sacks. If Aldon is wreaking havoc on the Baltimore offensive line it’s going to be tough for Flacco to do much with the deep passing game and their success in that area will probably determine whether they can keep pace with the 49ers.

I also mentioned in our leadup to the NFC Championship Game that football, at its core, is still a game won by big uglies and that the 49ers simply had better big uglies than the Falcons. Just like the fact that my biggest fear is still David Akers, I still feel like the 49ers have the advantage in the trenches. With Justin Smith battling injury, same as Haloti Ngata, I think the defensive lines are pretty even which wasn’t the case against Atlanta. However I think the 49ers have a an edge on the offensive line, both compared to Baltimore’s offensive line and in their matchups against the Ravens defense. Ngata isn’t in top form. Suggs isn’t in top form. Ray Lewis isn’t in top form. Ed Reed isn’t in top form. I actually see this game unfolding a lot like the NFC Championship Game, with the Ravens having some success early and the 49ers offensive line taking over the game late. The difference here is that I think the Falcons offense is better than Baltimore’s and I don’t see the 49ers falling behind by 17 at any time.

The last time Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman lost a game coming off a bye week was 2007, their first year at Stanford when they lost to Notre Dame. Since then they’ve gone 6-0-1, including last year’s playoff win over the Saints, and this year’s tie against the Rams and playoff victory over the Packers. This team has a great head coach and a great coaching staff and they know how to take advantage of extra time to prepare. They will have some new wrinkle for this game, something that the Ravens haven’t seen on tape yet, and that’s why my bold prediction for this game is that the 49ers will attempt some sort of a trick play. I don’t know exactly what it’ll be but there will be a fake kick, an onside kick, maybe Moss throwing a TD, or Staley catching another pass.

These teams are pretty even overall. The one major edge the Ravens have is their place kicker, and the biggest edge the 49ers have is in their linebacker group (which may ultimately be judged as one of the best ever). Other than that the teams are pretty close, but I give the 49ers a slight edge basically everywhere else. I don’t think this game is going to be a 55-10 or 49-26 blowout but I don’t think it’s going to be all that competitive in the 4th quarter either. It might actually end up being very similar to the 49ers Super Bowl win against the Dolphins in 1985, which was 38-16 and may not have even been that close. My final prediction: 49ers 31, Ravens 17.

Take us home Frank. Give me a bold prediction for the game and your final score.

FG: I definitely concur that when you look at every side of the ball the Niners have the distinct advantages save for the kicking game which is where my bold prediction will come in. I think David Akers will get to attempt 3 FG’s in the Super Bowl and will make only 2 of them. I have it that he misses his final field goal to put the Niners up and able to run out the clock leaving the Ravens a chance to drive down the field for a winning score. Akers is nowhere to be found on the sideline because he is being consoled by Alex Smith in the tunnel. The problem is that even though he misses, the Niners are left with their best option on the field to stop the Ravens and end up stopping them on a 4th and 4 that would get the Ravens into Field Goal range with about a minute left.

Even though I hate to admit that the Niners are good, they are and are a lot better than the Ravens. Literally, the only way I see the Ravens winning is if there is a complete and utter breakdown in Special Teams, if the Niners defense just doesn’t show up, or if Kaepernick just completely wets the bed and has his worst game as a pro. The likelihood of all three of those happening let alone 1 is pretty slim. Unless the whole Niners gang decided to do their best impersonation of Donovan McNabb and party till the sun came up on Bourbon street last night or Victor Conte shows up on the Ravens sideline as a special consultant, this game should go the Niners way. Plus after reading your Kaep Gun article, I’m even less inclined to go with the Ravens.

So my final prediction for Superbowl XLVII is Niners 23 – Ravens 21 and the MVP will be Patrick Willis who will have 12 tackles and 2 sacks.

Alright Aaron have fun watching the game and remember to drink some water every once in a while imbibing is going on. Also always remember Beer before Liquor, Never Sicker and Liquor before Beer, you’re all clear. I’m going to go prep for the flood of text’s from friends that I never knew were Niners fans and how all of a sudden they are diehard fans. This is my life..

Since the San Francisco 49ers handed the car keys to Colin Kaepernick they’ve run a lot more of their offense out of what’s known as the pistol formation.  It’s essentially a modified shotgun formation with the quarterback standing about 2 yards closer to the line of scrimmage, allowing for a RB to line up directly behind the QB.  The result is that the QB has all the advantages of being in the shotgun without limiting the options for the running game.

The pistol, or as I’m now calling it, The Kaep Gun because it almost seems like it was designed specifically for Colin Kaepernick, also makes it easy for offenses to run what’s known as the read option.  You’ve probably heard something about it in between conversations about the fact that Jim and John Harbaugh are brothers and Ray Lewis‘ deer antlers.  The read option allows the offense to get a look at the defense and then run the ball where they are weakest.  It’s not quite that simple, and most teams can’t run it because it requires a QB that is mobile, agile, big enough to take some hits (and aware enough to avoid them), and a competent passer.  Fortunately for the 49ers, Colin Kaepernick is all of those things.

The amount you’ll likely hear about the read option come Super Bowl Sunday is going to be totally disproportionate to the numbers of times the 49ers actually run the play.  The truth is the 49ers probably ran the read option no more than 10 or 12 times out of the 51 plays they ran against the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game, which is roughly 1/3 of their total rushing plays.  It’s not something that is likely to ever be the mainstay of an NFL offense because of the unique talent it takes to make it work and because of the risk to the QB, but when executed properly it is a devastating weapon against an overaggressive defense.  The effect is similar to a reverse in that sense, but the risk of losing yardage is significantly less with the read option than it is with a reverse.

Here’s how it works.  The QB receives the snap, turns to face one side of the defense, and holds the ball out in front of him while he looks at whoever is responsible for holding the edge of the defense (a defensive end in a 4-3 and an outside linebacker in a 3-4).  As he does that the RB runs across the QB’s face, which is when the QB has to make the decision to either leave the ball out for the RB to grab, or pull it in and run it himself.  The actions of the defender on the edge will dictate what the QB decides to do.  If the defender is crashing down towards the middle to stop the run, the QB pulls the ball back and runs around the edge through the space vacated by that edge player.  If that edge player stays wide to stop the QB running, the RB will get the ball.

The offensive linemen also react to what the defenders on the edge are doing, and it makes their jobs easier.  In a typical running play offensive linemen are moving the defenders against their will, fighting force with force with the stronger man, the player with better leverage, ultimately winning.  On a read option play it’s a different situation.  Rather than going against the defender, an offensive lineman’s goal is to prevent the defender from correcting their initial mistake.  That means taking the inside shoulder and sealing off an inside lane if the defender on the edge moves outside to take the QB, and taking the outside shoulder to seal the edge if the defender crashes down on the running back.  Engaging a defender as he tries to change direction, when he has the least amount of leverage, gives the offensive lineman a decided advantage.

So what’s the answer for a defense?  Well, the short answer is stop trying.  The read option is like quicksand; the more you fight it the worse the situation becomes.  Stanford beat Oregon last season, a team that relies heavily on the read option, by maintaining their gap assignments and containment responsibilities.  Players on the edge weren’t trying to make a big play, just contain the offense and prevent one.  Hold the edges.  Trust the interior linemen and linebackers to make the play.  Give up 2 yards so you don’t give up 20.  In that game in Eugene last November, Stanford didn’t “stop” Oregon’s high powered offense.  The Ducks gained 400 total yards with half of that total coming on the ground. What Stanford did accomplish was keeping the Ducks, for the most part, off the scoreboard.  They limited the big plays and made Oregon string together long drives and beat them through the air.

It’s interesting to compare what Stanford did against Oregon to what Atlanta tried to do against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.  Mike Nolan, the Falcons’ defensive coordinator, watched Kaepernick run for an NFL QB record 180 yards against the Packers and vowed not to let Kaepernick beat him by getting around the edge of the defense and into space.  It’s a great theory, right up until Kaepernick reads the edge defender and hands the ball to the RB who is able to gain 10 yards running through a wide open lane.

With a player like Kaepernick, a freakish athlete who is equally capable of beating a defense with his arm or his legs, there’s no way to completely stop the read option.  All a defense can hope to do is contain it, get the 49ers into a 3rd and long situation, and hope for a stop.  An offense which operations out of the shotgun gives its QB a greater ability to see the defense and see the play develop, but that advantage comes with a price because with the RB lined up next to the QB the only way to run the ball is with a draw play.  The Kaep Gun, which is perfectly suited for Kaepernick’s abilities, gives the QB that same ability to read the defense in the passing game without taking the full compliment of running plays off the table.

Photo by Frank Gomez

Got a good shot of Ray Fosse, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Taylor, Tommy Milone, and Pat Neshek all heading out to sign autographs for the fans.

Photo by Frank Gomez

Cespedes definitely had the biggest line of the day and was more than happy to sign for everyone.

Photo by Frank Gomez

Shirts and all, Cespedes was ready t sign it all and so was Taylor.

Photo by Frank Gomez

The Cuban contingent was out in full force to cheer on Cespedes and get some autographs. The flag definitely helped get his attention.

Photo by Frank Gomez

Did I mention I was worried about Cespedes getting frost bite? Well I was OK, especially on his throwing hand.

Photo by Frank Gomez

Tommy Milone and Pat Neshek were also out getting their autograph on.

Photo by Frank Gomez

Even the Lucahdore A’s fans had to wait for autographs. Just hope no one got suplexed.

Photo by Frank Gomez

Even though 95.7 is the A’s flagship, I’m somewhat surprised they weren’t wearing Giants gear. Actually very surprised…

Photo by Frank Gomez

Solid panel with A’s new outfielder Chris Young, current right fielder Josh Reddick, Billy Beane and Manager Bob Melvin.

Photo by Frank Gomez

One of the crazier things during fanfest was getting a look at Reddick’s beard. Pretty much in full glory.

Photo by Frank Gomez

Although is Reddick’s beard and Coco’s fro had to fight, I would put all my money on the fro. The Coco fro was in glorious pre-season form.

Photo by Frank Gomez

Also got a chance to catch Reddick signing autographs and he definitely got some ” Sign the front of my Shirt” action from the ladies. I’m not sure if it was the full force of the beard but it probably had something to do with it.

Photo by Frank Gomez

Oh and before I forget, that is what 4 World Series trophies look like. Just in case you were bad at math and thought 2 was greater than 4…

The atmosphere at fanfest was great and there was a buzz in the air from all the fans who attended. Now let’s just see if Ownership is going to be willing to capitalize on the fervor because now there are expectations to be met. Until Opening Day A’s Fans… Let’s Go Oakland!!!

A couple of weeks ago the BBWAA was set to announce the 2013 inductees to the Hall of Fame, but a funny thing happened on the way to Cooperstown: none of the players on the ballot received enough votes for enshrinement.  Craig Biggio.  Jack Morris.  Jeff Bagwell.  Mike Piazza.  Tim Raines.  Lee Smith.  Curt Schilling.  Roger Clemens.  Edgar Martinez.  Alan Trammell.  Larry Walker.  The Crime Dog.  Dale Murphy.  Big Mac.  Donnie Baseball.  Sammy Sosa.  Rafael Palmeiro.  None of them received the 75% of the vote necessary for enshrinement.  From a list of players that includes a member of the 600 home run club, another 2 members of the 500 home run club,  a pitcher with over 350 career wins, and 2 players with over 3,000 hits the BBWAA deemed that nobody was worthy for selection for the first time since 1996.

Oh and a guy named Barry Bonds.  He got 36.2% of the vote.  Less than Clemens (37.6%).  Less than Schilling (38.8%).  Less than Lee Smith (47.8%).  Less, even, than one of the most controversial names in recent Hall of Fame voting, Jack Morris (67.7%).  You may have heard of Bonds.  He’s the all-time leader in home runs with 762, and walks with 2,558.  His 7 MVP awards are more than double what anyone else in the game’s history have won.  On resume alone not only is Bonds the very definition of a first ballot Hall of Famer, he’s without question one of the 5 best players to ever play the game.

But with Bonds it’s never as simple as the numbers would suggest.  For one thing his ego is somehow even bigger than his immense talent and it rubbed more than one BBWAA member the wrong way over his 22 years of Major League Baseball.  Whereas writers will look for any reason to cast a vote for some players because of the relationship they had with the media, those same writers will also look for any reason not to vote for some players based on the relationship they had with the media.  Bonds was always going to fall into that camp, although I sincerely doubt he ever lost any sleep over it.  He was good, so good he was impossible to overlook or dismiss.  And he knew it.

Bonds was never going to benefit from his cozy relationship with the media the way some players do, and the voters have always used their votes to make some personal statements.  Need proof?  Although Willie Mays was a first ballot Hall of Famer, he was not a unanimous selection.  In fact of the 432 BBWAA members with votes in 1979, 23 of them did not cast a vote for Willie Mays.

In Bonds’ case, the personal relationships he had (or in most cases, didn’t have) with the media are obviously not what kept him out of the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility.  It was the drugs.  Specifically, the performance enhancing drugs.  Bonds, along with Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Rafael Palmeiro are the poster children for an entire era of baseball history stained and tarnished by an epidemic of PED’s which cast serious and justified doubt on the many accomplishments of the players between the late 80′s and the early 2000′s.

Baseball is about a lot of things.  The eb and flow of 162 games spread out of 6 months.  Playing hooky from work or school and sitting out in the sun enjoying a game.  But maybe most important is its own history.  It’s a game that spans generations in a way that other games don’t, because while other sports have all undergone radical changes, from leagues merging to rules and equipment changes, baseball has stayed basically the same for most of the last century.  Sure the color  barrier fell, and players started coming from Latin America and Asia, and the athletes are better, but at it’s core the game is still basically the same.  The rules are mostly the same.  The strategies are largely the same.  And that continuity over such an extended period of time means that when comparing players of the past and present and arguing about which players were the best fans could feel like they were comparing apples to apples. For some, the PED era changed all that.  The players of the 90′s and 2000′s were so physically different from the players of the past, and blew through so many of baseball sacred accomplishments, that they no longer felt comparable to the greats of yesteryear.  There are many who complain that the PED’s were cheating, that they gave some players an unfair advantage over others.  There are those who say the drugs are a serious health risk and that they put unfair pressure on kids and young players to sacrifice their health for their baseball dreams.  Without diminishing the validity of those very real and very serious issues, it’s hard to ignore the anger about that sudden and violent break from baseball’s past.  Of being cheated of those arguments over who is the best LF or 1B of all-time at the Thanksgiving table or at the bar.  Can we really compare Ted Williams to Barry Bonds?  Is it fair to Lou Gehrig to compare him to Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire?

Everyone in baseball “missed” the PED epidemic, and by “missed” I mean intentionally ignored the growing problem in favor of their own financial interests and job security.  As much as the revelations of drug use are a black mark on the careers of so many of the players of the era, they’re also an asterisk that is permanently attached to everyone in and around the game for those two decades.  Players.  Managers.  Executives.  Owners.  Commissioners.  Media.  Everyone saw what was happening and everyone chose not to do anything about it because there was too much money to be made by looking the other way and pretending it wasn’t real.

As a general rule I’m not a “blame the media” type of person.  It’s not the “gotcha media’s” fault when a candidate for the second highest office in the country can’t name a single solitary news publication.  I don’t think the media forced any players to take drugs.  I think the players who were clean and wanted to play a clean game, through the MLBPA and in concert with the owners, should have been the first line of defense against this growing problem.  Having said that, the media needed to be the last line of defense.  We as fans don’t have access to players, coaches, and major decision makers in and around the game, nor do we have the resources to investigate rumors and verify information.  We rely on the media to do that for us, and when it comes to writing about what happens on the field they generally do a great job.  On this issue though, in this era, they failed miserably.  Completely.  On basically every level.  There may be some baseball writers who have apologized for dropping the ball (no pun intended) on this story, or at least accepted their share of the blame for letting it happen, but the only one I’m aware of that did it was Buster Olney.  I may not always agree with Olney but I have the utmost respect for him, in no small part because of the way he accepted responsibility for not doing his job.

So you can understand that when I something like this shows up in my timeline on Twitter I go completely mental:

Proud of @cbssports and @mlbnetwork voters, who stood against steroids. @scottmcbs @dknobler @ken_rosenthal @pgammo verducci

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) January 10, 2013

 

For those who are unaware, Jon Heyman graduated from Northwestern and was the Yankees beat writer at Newsday for 16 years before joining Sports Illustrated in 2006 and eventually moving on to CBSSports.com and MLB Network.  If Heyman left Newsday in 2006, and was a beat writer for 16 years, that means his career spanned almost the entirety of what we know as the PED era.  You were there for it Jon. Almost all of it.  And you did nothing.  Nada.  Zero.  Zilch.  Nothing.  Jon can you say, with a straight face, that you had no idea steroids were in baseball while you were covering the daily beat?  That you never saw a player’s body explode and started wondering?  Never heard from a scout or a front office executive that they suspected this player or that player’s sudden spike in production was drug aided?

Let’s not pretend that any of us were clueless about the presence of drugs in sports.  The Olympics have had stringent drug testing for years, testing which quite famously cost Canadian sprinter Ben Johnson his gold medal in the men’s 100m sprint at the Seoul Olympics in 1988.  1988!  15 years before the US Attorney started investigating BALCO, and 18 years before Lance Williams and Mark Fainaru-Wada published Game of Shadows, there had already been a very high profile case of an elite athlete using drugs to cheat.  What reason did Heyman or anyone else have for thinking those same drugs couldn’t, wouldn’t, or didn’t make their way into baseball?  Anyone who watched the Oakland A’s of the late 80′s and early 90′s with McGwire and Jose Canseco and The Bash Brothers knew something was happening.

I understand why Heyman and others decided to ignore a problem that was literally staring them in the face almost every day of their lives.  Baseball’s popularity took a huge hit in the wake of the 1994 strike which cancelled the playoffs and the World Series.  A drug scandal, coming on the heels of that strike and the cocaine problem of the 80′s, could very well have eliminated baseball as one of the 4 major professional sports in America.  If the game lost its popularity then there’d be no reason for media outlets to spend the resources covering the game on a daily basis, which means a writer like Heyman could have lost his job.  And then the great home run chase of 1998 came along and rivatalized the game.  At the same time the Yankees, Heyman’s beat, started winning championships and put together a dynasty.  Heyman probably started dreaming about book money and becoming a part of the national baseball media, and knew that if he were to investigate and report on PED use in baseball the relationships he had cultivated and would need would disappear.  So he put his own career and his own well-being ahead of doing the right thing and doing his job.  In other words, he made the same calculated decision that everyone else in the game made.

So now, after all that failure and missed opportunity Jon, you want to mount your high horse and sit in judgement of players who did exactly what you did?  Joseph N. Welch, former head counsel for the United States Army, has a question for you:

Heyman’s far from the only journalist who neglected to do his or her job during the PED era, and the attitude that led to the story going unreported for so many years still exists in some form.  In his column on CSN Bay Area explaining his stance on the HOF ballot and his selections for 2013, which was a great read, Andrew Baggarly slipped something of a bombshell into the middle that has gone largely unreported (emphasis is mine):

“I just know I cannot feel comfortable voting for one guy and not another because of suspicion, or because one player might have been smarter or luckier about where they sourced their stuff. (I also believe there is at least one current Hall of Famer who used steroids toward the end of his career, by the way, even if I cannot responsibly mention his name.) I believe I have to judge Bagwell and Piazza on their accomplishments and statistics, and those make them slam dunks for the Hall.”

Really Baggs?  The old “I’ve got a secret but I had to promise not to tell” move?  Why would it be irresponsible for you to mention his name?  You’re a bright guy, like Heyman a Northwestern grad, and whatever evidence or source you had must have convinced you, so why not share the name?  And if you didn’t have enough confirmation to feel comfortable providing the name why not investigate further and nail the story?  Given the outrage many voters seem to have over even a single possible PED user being elected to the Hall surely the news that at least one user is already enshrined would be a big deal and a potential conversation changer.

To be fair to Baggarly, he’s not the only one who has made similar revelations.  Per HardBallTalk, there are already steroid users in the Hall of Fame.  The post harkens back to a 2010 revelation from Washington Post baseball scribe and Hall of Fame voter Thomas Boswell’s admission that he saw a player mix what the player called a “Jose Canseco milkshake” in 1988.  He doesn’t mention the player’s name because why would that be important?  It’s just another example of a reporter putting his own access to, and relationship with, the subject ahead of reporting the story.

The failure of the baseball media to report on the PED story as it was unfolding reminds me in many ways of the Watergate scandal.  I won’t even pretend that drug use in baseball carries the same weight or importance as the biggest political scandal in American history and I don’t think a president should have resigned a disgrace as a result (just a commissioner).  With Watergate the large assembly of White House beat reporters didn’t break the story, instead it came down to a pair of intrepid metro reporters from the Washington Post, Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein, to dig through court documents and hound sources until they got them on the record.  For baseball it wasn’t any of the hundreds of print and broadcast journalists assigned to cover the sport who broke the PED story, it was another pair of outsiders, Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams, who scoured legal filings and court documents and hounded sources and eventually nailed it.  Both the White House and baseball beat writers and were too close to the story and too unwilling to do the digging necessary to find the truth.  Maybe it was because they didn’t want to know the truth and maybe it was just plain old laziness.  In the end, does it really matter?

The “day late and a dollar short” outrage fans are subjected to includes a lot of former players as well.  One Curt Schilling, never shy about opening his mouth, has found PED religion the way so many journalists have.  Once Fainaru-Wada and Williams (and to a lesser extent Jose Canseco) exposed the extent of the PED problem Schilling became an outspoken critic of players who had cheated and even went so far as to testify before Congress on the matter.  Funny how he had nothing to say when his teammate Luis Gonazlez went from 31 HR in 2000 to 57 HR in 2001 while leading the Arizona Diamondbacks to a playoff berth and eventually a World Series Championship.  Gonzalez had never broken 30 HR in his 9 seasons in the majors prior to 2000, and in the 7 full seasons he played after 2001 never again topped 30.*

*To my knowledge there has never been any evidence uncovered which proves Luis Gonzalez used PED’s.  Maybe that’s because he didn’t break any HR records and isn’t a likely Hall of Fame candidate so no one investigated him, maybe that’s because he didn’t do it.  Either way, his 2001 season was suspect at the time and given all that has been learned about the extent of drug use it remains suspect.

So now that we’re here, what do we do about this whole mess?  It’s a complex problem but sometimes complexity breeds simplicity.  There’s no way to vote on Hall of Fame induction based on who BBWAA writers think used PED’s because they wil inevitably be wrong.  Guys who really were clean won’t make it in and as Andrew Baggarly and HardBallTalk noted they’ve already failed to keep all the users out of the Hall.  And then what happens 5 or 10 years down the road when we discover someone who was voted in because the scribes believed they were clean turns out to have been dirty?  Does he get removed from the Hall?  It’s an impossible task that will eventually lead to more headaches than acceptable results.

Rob Neyer had a great take on the Hall of Fame/PED problem recently in which he outlined 6 approaches to this dilemma.  What he settles on is that players shouldn’t get votes if they needed drugs to reach Hall of Fame consideration.  This, I think, is where most people ultimately come down because it provides enough cover to recognize the greatest talents of this generation while still allowing for a distinction between those elite talents and the very good who benefitted from pharmaceutical assistance.  In a perfect world we’d have a full and complete accounting of who used what and when, combined with a formula for determining the impact of the drugs on player performance.  The problem is we don’t have either of those now and likely never will.  Even if every player that used came forward tomorrow and detailed what they used and when they used it, could we ever truly trust that the account was complete?  Given all the lies and subterfuge I think most fans and writers would always assume there were more players that didn’t come forward.  Maybe someday we’ll have a complete understanding of the true extent and impact of performance enhancing drugs in baseball but right now we don’t and we probably won’t have that information before many of these players start to drop off Hall of Fame ballots.

With that in mind there are really only 2 possible solutions to this problem:

1. Send them all to Cooperstown

This particular generation can’t really be compared to previous generations because the numbers have all been skewed and distorted.  The numbers that traditionally made a player a sure thing for the Hall (500 HR, 3,000 hits, 300 wins, etc) just don’t have the same meaning that they used to.  All current and future voters can do when evaluating this generation of players is compare them to each other and vote for those that were truly the greatest of this era.

2. Don’t send anyone to Cooperstown

Don’t vote for anyone whose career coincided with the PED era and limit consideration to those who finished before steroids began to infiltrate the game (good luck locking down that date) and players whose careers began after the testing program was instituted.  But this is just a case of trying to whitewash history, and that always makes me uncomfortable.  When you remove anything controversial or negative from history you lose track of who you are and you limit the lessons that can be learned.  It would also make it too easy for the writers to absolve themselves of their own sins and I’m not comfortable with that either.  Like it or not, PED use is part baseball history just like the race barrier was part of the game for Cobb and Ruth and Gehrig, and amphetamines were part of the game for Mays and Mantle and Aaron.  Plus, why should voters who blew it get to keep their votes only to use them against the players they failed to adequately cover?  If the players loose their Hall of Fame eligibility then those writers who were there and did nothing should too.  PED use is a stain on this era that the players, writers, coaches, and owners should all have to live with.  Forever.

The reality is there’s no good way to handle this, and no way to really make ourselves feel better about our collective lack of vigilance.  All that’s left is the best of a bunch of bad options, and to me that means we figure out who the best players from this generation are and enshrine them in the Hall of Fame.  In other words, we do what we’ve always done.  That might not be what the writers want to hear or what they want to do, and it would rob them of TV appearances and radio appearances and columns where they can rail against these evil players who ruined the sanctity of the American pastime.

But you know what guys?  You’re just as guilty as they are.

The reality is that there wasn’t much Doug Wilson could do last summer to reshape the team.  Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau have no-trade clauses so they couldn’t be traded unless they wanted to be and Doug Wilson has been adamant in the past that the Sharks don’t rebuild, they reload.  Wilson has never been shy about making a big trade but the options were rather limited because the prospect cupboard is so bare, meaning any trade for a player like Rick Nash would have necessarily included current roster players like Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Justin Braun, or Jason Demers.  If 2 or 3 of those players were heading out in a deal for Nash it’s hard to make a convincing case that the trade would have made the team stronger given the aforementioned dearth of NHL ready prospects, and that’s before factoring in the cap problems.

Then there is the labor situation, which is the whole reason this preview post is going up in January rather than late September or early October and we’re talking about 48 games rather than 82.  With uncertainty about what the salary cap would look like going forward, what restrictions might be in place on contract lengths and values, and what players may end up being available at a discount because of buyouts, caution was the right approach to take for the long-term.  It’s just not what fans who have grown accustomed to legitimate Stanley Cup hopes want to see for the short-term.

Because the 2012-2013 (or is it just 2013?) Sharks so closely resemble the 2011-2012 team means that a lot of the same problems still exist, problems that were covered at the trade deadline in February.  The biggest problem for the Sharks continues to be a lack of balance at the forward position, where the top 6 remains solid and the bottom 6 continues to be equal parts unreliable and unproductive.

Next on the list of problems is the penalty kill.  In 2009-2010 the Sharks boasted the league’s 4th best PK unit.  The following season it dropped to 24th before cratering at 29th out of 30 last season.  If the Sharks can’t find a way to get more production out of the bottom 6 and find a way to at least get the PK back to the middle of the pack it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Sharks improve on their 7th place finish in the Western Conference and early exit from the playoffs.

FORWARDS

Adam Burish is one of the newest Sharks.

In: Adam Burrish, James Sheppard

Out: Brad Winchester, Benn Ferriero, Torrey Mitchell, Daniel Winnik, Dominic Moore

Free agent signing Adam Burish will add some much needed grit and energy to the 4th line.  Sheppard, the 9th overall pick in the 2006 NHL draft, hasn’t played an NHL game since 2009-2010 due to knee injuries and was only able to get into 4 games in the AHL for Worcester last season.  Sheppard has talent and got off to a nice start in Worcester this season (8-16-24, 34 GP) but there’s no way to know what, if anything, the Sharks will get out of him at the NHL level this year.  Although he will probably start off with limied minutes on the 4th line, if all goes according to plan expect to see Sheppard challenging TJ Galiardi and second year player Tommy Wingels.  Michael Handzus, a healthy scratch for most of the stretch run, will once again be counted on as the 3rd line center.  It really didn’t work last year and there’s not a lot of reason to expect things to be better the second time around.

The top 6 will look the same as it did in 2011-2012 when those players accounted for the overwhelming majority of the 219 goals scored by the Sharks, which was good for 13th in the NHL despite an down year from Ryane Clowe and injuries which slowed Logan Couture down in the 2nd half of the season and cost Martin Havlat 43 games.  The Sharks were a much better team with Havlat on the ice because his speed and skill provided a presence the team sorely missed in his absence.  Couture is a young player who has never experienced any serious injuries, and he was able to continue playing through his shoulder injury even if his impact was significantly reduced, so there’s good reason to expect him to bounce back.  It’s a different story with Havlat, who has been saddled with injuries throughout his career.  The Sharks can hope Havlat stays healthy, and the injury that cost him the most time last year was a complete fluke, but there’s no way the team can realistically expect Havlat to play in all 48 regular season games.  The top line saw Patrick Marleau struggle in the 2nd half of the season en route to scoring “just” 30 goals, his lowest total since 2007-2008.  Marleau’s struggles were at least somewhat offset by Joe Pavelski’s career high 30 goal campaign, but there’s little doubt the Sharks need Marleau to be a more consistent threat.

Head Coach Todd McLellan has traditionally gone strength vs strength with his matchups rather than relying on a 3rd line to take on the opposition’s best.  As Marleau and Thornton see age 30 fade further into the rearview mirror McLellan has to find ways to reduce their total minutes, and perhaps even more importantly their toughest minutes (including on the PK).  It’s possible some of the goal scoring problems the team experienced down the stretch last season were a direct result of riding Marleau, Thornton, Pavelski, and Couture too hard, relying on them to take on the other team’s best players at even strength and kill penalties.  If the Sharks are going to improve in 2013 the bottom 6 is going to have to pick up some of the slack.

Scott Gomez, the former New Jersey Devil and New York Ranger who was recently bought out by the Montreal Canadiens has been in talks with the Sharks and could provide some inexpensive depth in the bottom 6.  Gomez was a very productive top 6 forward through his 20′s, only twice scoring less than 60 pts in a season from age 20 though 28.  During that stretch he scored 70 pts or more 4 times during that stretch, peaking with a 33-51-84, +24 season for the Devils at age 26.  His production has declined the last 2 years and at 33 he’s no longer a reliable front line forward but he could provide some offensive spark to the 3rd line.

Is Jumbo ready for a big year?

Marleau – Thornton – Pavelski

Clowe – Couture – Havlat

Galiardi – Handzus – Wingels

Sheppard/McLaren – Desjardins – Burish

DEFENSEMEN

All that’s old is new again. Brad Stuart is back in San Jose.

In: Brad Stuart, Nick Petrecki, Matt Irwin

Out: Colin White, Jim Vandermeer

Stuart’s rights were re-acquired by the Sharks from the Red Wings back in June and he was signed to a contract extension shortly thereafter.  The onetime Sharks draft pick probably never quite lived up to his billing as the 3rd overall pick in the 1998 NHL Draft (although in his defense it was not the deepest draft class ever) but has developed into a solid, reliable option on the backend.  Colin White was the defensive version of Michal Handzus, a pylon that drove fans crazy because they felt (rightfully so I might add) that there were better options available.  One of those options was Jim Vandermeer, who actually ended up playing more minutes as a forward than a defenseman.

Dan Boyle, who runs the point on the Sharks power play which finished 2nd in the league last year, is coming off a second consecutive 9 goal season.  Boyle should experience some bounce-back after playing through a broken foot for a month, but as he enters his age 36 season it’s hard to know how much bounce-back he has left.  Even with his broken foot Boyle’s 9 goals were enough to finish 2nd among Sharks defensemen behind only Brent Burns’ 11.

There’s no doubt the Sharks would like to find a way to reduce the 25 mins a night Boyle played in 2011-2012 but that’ll be difficult until Brent Burns returns from offseason surgery.  Burns has yet to resume skating and there’s no real time table for the big, mobile defenseman to return.  After an up and down 1st season in San Jose (Burns was acquired from the Minnesota Wild prior to 2011-2012) the Sharks were certainly hoping Burns would be able to improve upon the 11-26-37, +8 campaign he had last season.  Joining Burns in the press box to start the season is Jason Demers, who suffered an injury while playing in the Spengler Cup last month.  If Burns was healthy Demers would likely find himself in a battle for the last spot on the blueline with Douglas Murray.  With Burns out and not looking like his return is imminent the fact that Demers is out opens up a spot for Sharks prospect Matt Irwin to start the season not just on the Sharks roster but in the lineup.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic, steady Marc-Eddie, is already in his 6th NHL season at the ripe old age of 25.  Vlasic signed a contract extension over the summer and all he does is come out ahead despite facing the toughest competition among Sharks defenseman.  Although not the biggest points producer in the league Vlasic is as steady and defensively responsible a player as you’ll find in the NHL, and the fact that he doesn’t score a ton of points has a lot to do with the fact that he’s often covering for more offensively aggressive teammates.  Justin Braun rounds out the defense corps and was a real pleasant surprise after being called up from Worcester due to injuries last season.  Braun took the opportunity and never let go, finishing with 66 games played and earning himself both ice time in the playoffs and a 3 year contract contract.

Steady Marc-Eddie.

Vlasic – Stuart

Irwin – Boyle

Murray – Braun

GOALTENDERS

How long with Antti Niemi be the starter?

In: None

Out: None

The Sharks return last year’s goaltending duo of starter Antti Niemi and backup Thomas Greiss.  Niemi struggled at times last season, and his 2.42 GAA was the lowest of his 3 seasons as a starting NHL goalie.  The .915 SV% seems ok by itself but was tied for just 21st in the league among qualified players.  There were times when Niemi looked great and there were other times when he looked extremely shaky.  The Sharks struggles on the penalty kill certainly contributed to his career worst GAA, although his uneven play was a contributing factor in the penalty killing problems.  The Sharks finished tied for 8th in the league in goals against, which is something considering just how bad the PK was.  It wasn’t the number of goals that Niemi allowed that was the problem, it was the timing of the goals.  It just seemed like Niemi failed to make the big save the team needed at a critical time and Niemi’s seat is probably starting to get a little bit hot despite a contract that runs through 2014-2015.

Backing up Niemi is 26 year old German goaltender Thomas Greiss.  Greiss played in 19 games for the Sharks last year, which represented a career high.  The Sharks appear comfortable with Greiss in a backup role but it doesn’t seem like they view him as a future starter.  The next man up for the Sharks, if injuries were to sideline either Niemi or Greiss, would probably be Alex Stalock.  Having suffered a potentially career threatening injury when his leg was cut by a skate, Stalock has re-established himself in Worcester this season.  It would be interesting to see whether Greiss or Stalock became the starter should Niemi be out for an extended period.

COACHES

Larry Robinson kickin it old school.

In: Larry Robinson, Jim Johnson

Out: Jay Woodcroft, Matt Shaw

Jay Woodcroft and Matt Shaw took the hit for the Sharks abysmal penalty kill and were replaced by Larry Robinson and Jim Johnson, both of them former NHL defensemen.  Larry Robinson is one of the most accomplished players and coaches in NHL history and brings a level of credibility that the Sharks have never really had before.  Johnson played 829 games in the NHL before retiring in 1998, and he comes to the Sharks having spent last season as an assistant coach with the Washington Capitals.  Both coaches will help implement adjustments to the Sharks philosophy on the penalty kill, which was entirely too passive in 2011-2012.  If the Sharks want to re-establish themselves as one of the best teams in the league they’ll have to get back to being more aggressive, challenging the opposition to make quicker decisions or risk turning the puck over.  Todd McLellan survived the disappointing 2011-2012 by making significant changes to his coaching staff, and while Doug Wilson has not made any public comments putting McLellan on the hot seat, he may not get another chance in San Jose if the team doesn’t improve this year.

X-FACTOR

People says this is Simon Cowell and I’m choosing to believe it.

Without a doubt it’s the schedule, which features 48 regular season games in just under 100 days with no exhibition games and almost no training camp.  There’s little precedent for this scenario and it’s hard to know who will benefit and who will be hurt.  Does the compressed schedule, which will see have teams playing a lot of back-to-backs with almost no multi-day breaks favor a youth?  Or does the fact the extended offseason and the fact that it’s a 48 game season rather than an 82 game season favor veterans?  Will there be an edge for teams that have had a lot of continuity over the past few years and won’t be trying to integrate a number of new players into the lineup because of the shortened and basically non-existant training camp?  The Sharks don’t have a lot of roster turnover heading into this season but they could have really used the time in training camp to implement some of the adjustments to the penalty kill.  And while the average age of the Sharks roster is right in line with the league average (28.1 for the Sharks, 28.2 for the league) some of the Sharks most important players are on the wrong side of that average.

Then there’s the issue of health, which hurt the Sharks last season.  With every game bring so important injuries are going to be critical and the shortened camp means conditioning may be a problem.  The Sharks are already without Burns and Demers and may be tempted to rush them back before they are in game shape.  A lot of NHL players have spent time in Europe and are in game shape, but many others have not and we’ll soon find out what they’ve been able to do on their own.  Expect to see a few players who did not play in Europe struggle this season and play well below what they’ve done in the past.  Also, don’t be surprised if teams are less inclined to let players play through injuries.  Because every game point is going to be important there will be times when a healthy body is better than someone that’s banged up even if the healthy guy isn’t as talented or experienced, especially in situations where resting for a short period means the player can come back 100% healthy rather than play at 75%-80% for a couple of weeks.

This season is going to be different from the one that came before it and the one that comes after it, and the team that responds best to the unique set of challenges presented by the schedule could easily end up raising Lord Stanley’s Cup in June even if they aren’t the most talented team in the league.

BOLD PREDICTIONS

Atlantic

A lot of people are about to try and knock that smile off his face.

1. Pittsburgh Penguins

2. New York Rangers

3. Philadelphia Flyers

4. New Jersey Devils

5. New York Islanders

Northeast

Presented without comment.

1. Boston Bruins

2. Ottawa Senators

3. Toronto Maple Leafs

4. Buffalo Sabres

5. Montreal Canadiens

Southeast

Wait, are we back?

1. Washington Capitals

2. Florida Panthers

3. Carolina Hurricanes

4. Winnipeg Jets

5. Tampa Bay Lightning

Eastern Conference

Professional pain in the ass.

1. Boston Bruins

2. Pittsburgh Penguins

3. Washington Capitals

4. New York Rangers

5. Philadelphia Flyers

6. Florida Panthers

7. Ottawa Senators

8. Carolina Hurricanes

Central

Pietrangelo won’t be singing the Blues during the regular season.

1. St. Louis Blues

2. Chicago Blackhawks

3. Nashville Predators

4. Detroit Red Wings

5. Columbus Blue Jackets

Northwest

No, you’re not seeing double.

1. Vancouver Canucks

2. Colorado Avalanche

3. Edmonton Oilers

4. Minnesota Wild

5. Calgary Flames

Pacific

Frankenstein’s monster plays for the Kings.

1. Los Angeles Kings

2. San Jose Sharks

3. Phoenix Coyotes

4. Anaheim Ducks

5. Dallas Stars

Western Conference

There will be lots to celebrate in St. Louis this year.

1. St. Louis Blues

2. Vancouver Canucks

3. Los Angeles Kings

4. Chicago Blackhawks

5. San Jose Sharks

6. Colorado Avalanche

7. Nashville Predators

8. Edmonton Oilers

Stanley Cup Finals

Tuuka wearing a toque.

Hopefully I never have to see this again.

Boston Bruins vs Los Angeles Kings

Stanley Cup Champion

Boston Bruins

It’s like deje vu all over again.

(I just feel dirty picking an LA team to win a championship)

Three of the four teams still standing are holdovers from last year’s championship games. The Ravens, Patriots, and 49ers are joined this year by the Atlanta Falcons who will host the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. On the AFC side we have a repeat of 2012, with the Patriots hosting the Ravens. Before the playoffs started Frank, you picked the Patriots to come out of the AFC and end up in the Super Bowl. Are you sticking with them or are you riding with Ray?

Frank: I’ve had to think long and hard about still sticking with the Patriots as my AFC pick and as much as I love the last stand of the Ray Ray dance (Here is the gif just in case you need to see it one last time), I think I have to stick with my original Patriots pick and here’s why.

The Ravens versus Patriots to me seems like one of those games were in your mind you would think that both of these teams have seen each other a lot during the playoffs but in actuality they have only seen each other once in the AFC championship game, which was last years 23-20 heartbreaker. Then if we look at the head to head matchups of these 2 teams since 2001, the Pats are 5-2 versus Baltimore. When I’ve seen these two teams play against each other, it just seems like New England has never been truly rattled by the Ravens Defense. Brady seems to know exactly where to go with the ball even when the Ravens get a legitimate pass rush going and kind of just kills the Ravens slowly with a million paper cut like passes.

Sure it won’t help that Gronkowski is out again with a broken arm because he is such a great pass blocker but I think the Pats will be able to weather the storm without him. But here is one thing that might interest you Aaron, if I were to ask you who was the leading offense in the playoffs what would you say? I’m sure your answer is probably the Niners, but do you know who is second in total offense? The Baltimore Ravens which are then followed by the New England Patriots. That’s crazy right? Because when you look at total defense for both of these teams, they have both given up a lot of yards during the playoffs with the Ravens giving up 408 yd/g and the Pats giving up 425 yds/g. Neither team is close to their old storied defensive pedigree but when it comes to offense I think if you have to bet on one you have to go with the Pats.

I’ve never really trusted Flacco but thought that in the earlier rounds he would be more than up to the challenge of getting the Ravens to the AFC championship game. But now comes his biggest test where he has to go out and match Brady throw for throw and I don’t quite think he is up to the task. Compile that with the fact that Ray Lewis is probably constantly reminding Flacco that this is his last season and that he is retiring at the end of it and I’m sure Flacco is about as clenched up as Cameron from Ferris Bueller.

So I’m sticking with the Pats and will sadly have to say goodbye to the Ray Ray dance for the last time. Alright Aaron, now it’s your turn to say if you’re going to stick with your Pats pick and then start us off with your thoughts on the Falcons versus the Niners. I got some airborne and hantavirus meds to take.

AR: Never been so happy to be having this conversation digitally my friend because I definitely don’t need to be getting sick. It’s not that I don’t like you but, ummm, stay the hell away from me.

I’m also sticking with the Pats. Flacco has impressed me the last couple of games not just with the touchdowns he threw against Denver but with the way he hasn’t made any crippling mistakes yet. Unfortunately for him I think these teams are actually pretty evenly matched and when everything else is equal it’s too hard to pick against Tom Brady, especially at Gillette. Losing Gronkowski hurts, no doubt about it, but the Pats have been playing well without him up until this point and because they’ve had a few games to adjust I don’t think his absence hurts as much as it did last year. If this was a vintage Ravens defense I’d probably lean towards picking them but it’s not, so I’m not.

(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

I have to tell you, it’s so hard to look at this 49ers and Falcons game without fan colored glasses and it’s even harder not to get overly excited after seeing what Kaepernick did to the Packers last week. There are some real reasons for concern too. The 49ers haven’t won 3 games in a row all year and have gone W-W-L throughout the season. If that pattern holds this is going to be a second consecutive loss with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Atlanta has some real weapons on the outside in Roddy White and Julio Jones, with either one capable of generating a big play at any given time. Then there’s the “wow” factor coming off of last week and the fact that the Falcons have now seen it and (probably) won’t be caught off guard the way the Packers were. I still don’t feel good about Akers and the 49ers have had some well documented problems getting plays off without burning timeouts early.

Having said all that, I keep coming back to the fact that the Falcons don’t match up well with the Niners. The Falcons were 21st in the league in rushing defense during the regular season and 28th in rushing offense, while the 49ers were 4th in both categories. That’s a pretty big mismatch on both sides of the ball and the fact that Atlanta doesn’t have a real credible ground game should help the 49ers limit big plays in the passing game, which is something they do well to begin with. I see a lot of the Packers in the Falcons, which is bad news for Atlanta fans.

The teams that give the 49ers problems, most notably the Seahawks, Rams, and Giants, have a few traits in common. First, all of them play a 4-3 defense and have quality defensive lines that can generate pressure from all over the line without bringing a 5th man and can also stop the run. That frees up the linebackers and and safeties to play deeper in pass coverage and not get sucked in by play action, which is critical for the 49ers passing game. The Falcons really have only one good pass rusher, John Abraham, and he may be severely limited by an ankle injury. Atlanta held up against the running game last week against Seattle but can they do it again this week if the 49ers don’t fall behind early and give up on it?

On the other side of the ball, all 3 of those teams are balanced. The Rams don’t have an elite passing game so the 49ers dared Bradford to beat them and he was able to do just enough. The Seahawks and Giants have great QB’s, and the balance prevented the niners from loading up on either the pass or the run.

The Falcons don’t have that type of balance either on offense or defense and I think that hurts them in this game. They’re the type of team the 49ers like to play because they have such clear strengths and weaknesses and they aren’t overly physical. That’s not to say it would be a huge upset to see the Falcons win, I just think the matchup favors the 49ers as long as they haven’t spent too much time hearing about how great they were last week.

Willis and Bowman give the 49ers the ability to cover Tony Gonzalez, the 49ers have always been able to stop the run because of their front seven, so that means the safeties can give help over the top to try and contain White and Jones.

So I’m sticking with the 49ers. Are you sticking with the Falcons or have you come over to the dark side?

FG: Hold on while I sip some scintillating green tea rife with anti-oxidants, based on how I selected the Falcons to get all the way to the Superbowl thus assuring that the Niners would lose at some point, I will have to forego my trip to the darkside and say that the Falcons will beat the Niners because of another “I can’t Believe that Just Happend” gaff.

Ooops, how did this picture get in here?

I like everyone else saw the dismantling of the Discount Double Take Cheese Heads and was completely impressed with how Kaepernick handled himself and how he ran the offense flawlessly. But like you said, now that the Niners showed a really big portion of the Pistol Playbook, I think the Falcons will be more than prepared for Kaepernick and what he will bring to the game Sunday. Which I think plays completely into the Falcons favor and in particular Asante Samuels favor. I have a gut feeling that Kaepernick will throw 2 picks on Sunday but only 1 of those picks will cost the Niners the Game. Don’t tell me how I know these things, I just do.

Sure on Paper the Niners are overwhelming favorites and no person in their right mind should be picking against the Niners but I’m hopped up on Goofballs and sticking with the Falcons because it sounds like a great idea right about now in my Emergen-C and Coldeez’s induced haze. But I also had a premonition about a particular play possibly happening on Sunday that could swing the game in the Niners favor even though I picked the Falcons.

The play is going to be a simple “icing” the kicker time out that will take place at the end of the game with Matt Bryant attempting a game winning field goal. Now, if there was anything to take away from the Seattle game is that Bryant likes to still attempt the Field Goal even when getting iced and no I’m not talking about the crappy drinking game where you have to chug Smirnoff Ice either. I’m talking about when the coach calls a timeout right before the ball is snapped in an attempt to supposedly “Ice” the kicker into thinking a little bit more about the kick he is about to attempt. Now the actual NFL rule goes like this from Section 5 : Timeouts, Article 1

“The Referee shall suspend play while the ball is dead and declare a charged team timeout upon the request for a timeout by the head coach or any player to any official.”

Which I interpret as once the whistle is blown, all play is supposed to cease not matter what. But what Matt Bryant has become really adept at is kicking the ball once the time out has been called even though he isn’t supposed to continue with the kick. Thus allowing himself a freebie kick to make sure that all of his mechanics are on point and if he misses oh well. Which is probably why Pete Carrol was going so crazy on the side-lines, other then the fact that he was coming to the realization that he was gonna catch an L, after he missed because he was probably trying to tell the refs that he shouldn’t have been allowed to kick the ball.

So here is what I suggest, if and when this scenario comes up and the Niners are on defense they should blow through the whistle and block the FG attempt. Doing so will stop Bryant from getting his bearings on the kick and actually probably do more to rattle him then calling the actual time-out, who cares if they get a flag. The other tactic that Jim Harbaugh should try to employ would be to fake the time-out call. Make Matt Bryant think that he is going to be getting a free kick and thus relaxing while he then proceeds to shank the kick. Sounds like a sound plan right?

Now if the shoe is on the other foot and it’s Akers who is out there trying to win the game and the Falcons are going to try and ice him then he better just get his pre-loaded shank out of the way or it’s gonna be another loooooong off-season for the “Faithful”.

Alright Aaron any final thoughts on my crazy premonition and I’ll give you the last word on this weekend’s championship games because I think I’m slipping into an anti-oxidant induced coma.

AR: Well, I hadn’t really considered the whole “blocking the practice kick while icing the kicker” scenario but that’s actually not a bad idea at all. You did kind of hit on my nightmare scenario though, which is letting the Falcons hang around so that the game ends up on the foot of Akers or Bryant. I still don’t really trust Akers, and if you dosed Harbaugh or the players with truth serum they’d probably say the same thing. That’s why I think it’s critical that the 49ers take a Remember the Titans approach to this game and leave no doubt. Don’t let this game come down to 1 or 2 plays at the end. Don’t let this game come down to special teams. Don’t let the Falcons think they have a chance.

At its core football is still a game played by big, ugly, physical men, and the Niners have the better big uglies. If it is that type of game, nasty and brutal and won or lost in the trenches the 49ers should dominate. Their offensive line is better. Their defensive front 7 is better. We know what they are capable of, which has been a little bit of a problem this year because they know it too. I mentioned the W-W-L pattern that the team has had all season and a big part of that is believing their own hype. Remember all the experts and pundits who said the Packers looked poised for a Super Bowl run after they dismantled the Vikings in the first round? That’s how fast things can change in the NFL playoffs. All that matters is the next game, and if the 49ers come out with that type of focus and that type of attitude, if they really did move on from last week with humble hearts, if they have no letdowns like the they had against New England or like the Falcons had against the Seahawks, they will beat the Falcons and advance to New Orleans.

I’m equal parts stressed and excited about Sunday, and as much as I hate borrowing quotes from anybody associated with the Dallas Cowboys “let’s hang half a hundred on’em and enjoy the 2nd half.” I think that’s about the only way I’ll be able to truly enjoy it.

Assuming I don’t have a heart attack on Sunday we’ll do it again next week.

Update: As of this post, Niners Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree has been investigated for a possible sexual assault charge stemming from a hotel room incident early Sunday morning after the victory over Green Bay. Crabtree still traveled with the team and is cooperating with the Authorities. I guess after the Saturday’s win, having a humble heart wasn’t the only thing on Crabtree’s mind.

Sure coming off of an AL West Title in the toughest division in baseball and getting Manager of the Year honors for the second time in his career helped to grease the wheels but Bob Melvin is the face of this franchise for the next couple years and A’s fans should be excited about that. Billy Beane offered Melvin a contract extensions that would take Melvin through the 2016 season. Not to mention that both Beane and newly extended Assistant General Manger, David Forst, are also going to be here through the 2016 season with Beane having extensions that could take him into 2019. Here is a quote from Beane on the pairing,

“We all see ourselves in sync together,” Beane said, “and it seemed fitting that we should parallel the same tracks we have.” (Jane Lee Post)

Having a manager like Bob Melvin signed through the 2016 season is not something that is normal for the A’s and maybe it’s a shift in the culture of the front office and their views on the importance of managers but I for one, am all for it. First off, Oakland couldn’t have hoped for a better ambassador to help get this team back on track then Bob Melvin. Even if ownership downplays the rich history of the A’s in Oakland, Melvin makes sure to trumpet it at every opportunity. 

“It’s very noticeable to me that I am home and there is a pride factor involved, doing this job in your hometown. And I love it. I love being here. I love wearing this uniform. I want to be here and I care about being here.” (Mike Bauman Post)

Secondly, as I said throughout last season, Bob Melvin was a humongous key to why the A’s were able to both weather losing streaks and go on prolonged winning streaks. The guy just kept players accountable but not in a way that was detrimental to the team. If you’ve ever had a great boss than you will understand this next analogy. Melvin is the type of boss that makes you feel lucky to be working for him while also making you take pride in what you do because the worst thing that you could do would be to disappoint him by not giving your maximum effort. This is the vibe that Melvin gave off in interviews, post game pressers, and just in general when he was talking about his team. He always talked about being focused on the game at hand and to never look ahead because his team didn’t have the luxury of doing so. Maybe it was because of how young the team was this past year but every player seemed to answer the question in the same way that their manager did which just showed how ingrained the message was.

I’m reminded  of a story the Ray Fosse was telling the group at media day last year when someone asked him about Melvin. Now Ray is pretty much as old school as it gets when it comes to Baseball lifers and Oakland Baseball. The guy lives and breathes baseball and you could tell that he loved the way that Melvin was managing the A’s by the way he spoke so highly of him. He was genuinely excited that Melvin was getting an opportunity to showcase his managerial skills and the fact that he was getting to put them on display in an Oakland jersey. He told us about the time when he knew that Melvin was the perfect fit for this team. Fosse said that after Melvin had been officially signed as the manager of the A’s, that Melvin was more excited about the number he had gotten for his uniform then the hoopla of the signing. Fosse said that he had told Melvin congratulations and that Melvin had said Check it out while tugging on his jersey. Fosse said he paused for a second, looked at the number on the jersey and said, “Captain Sal…” and Melvin responded “Yeah, Captain Sal”.

The significance of that and the fact that Melvin wanted to make sure to harken back to the glory years of the organization and try and emulate as best he could the aura of famed A’s team captain, Sal Bando, from the 3 time World Series champion A’s of the early 70′s. Melvin knows his A’s history and does his best to make sure that it is a source of pride for the organization, its players, and Oakland instead of just trying to wash it away.

Who knows what will happen next year with the team but as long as Melvin is at the helm, the A’s for the first time in a long time are in good capable hands.